近期港股再度受到歐債危機攻擊。除了德國經濟好像仍較為似樣，其他的如英國(連航空母艦都賣埋)以及那些歐豬已一潭死水。歐豬的問題是群眾自我感覺良好但懶散，政府奉行高福利社會保障制度，做又36，唔做又36，民眾缺乏刻苦耐勞的精神和責任感(例如借咗錢唔想還)。
投資銀行及所謂的i-bankers是另一類沒有責任感及承擔的典範。雖然攪到雷曼破產，但其CEO仍可以大賺過億花紅，而破產前不久，雷曼仍獲“權威性”的評級機構給予最高的評級(當然那些快要爆煲的mortgage-backed securities亦得到評級機構的很高評價)。投資銀行的報告亦係得啖笑居多，很多時一邊叫人買，隨後就幫人配股。
筆者並不認同巿場是持久有效的。同一間企業的P/E，於不同氣氛下，可以由4倍到40倍不等。聰明的投資人應該利用巿場的愚昧，而非被愚昧的巿場利用。
2011年8月12日 星期五
我偶像
Has to be Anatoly Karpov, the 12th world chess champion, who dominated the chess world over 10 years during the 70s and 80s. Karpov is regarded by many as the second greatest chess player ever. He is also a billionaire.
Karpov entered the prestigious chess school established by Botvinnik, the 6th world chess champion, in Russia, when he was 12. Interestingly, Botvinnik commented that "The boy does not have a clue about chess, and there's no future at all for him in this profession." Now, most chess players consider Karpov greater than Botvinnik.
Unlike Garry Kasparov, his nemesis and the 13th champion, Karpov's play does not devote to complicated combinations and conflicts on the board. Instead, Karpov's play is natural and positional, singing harmony. It is just like what the great Chinese literaturer 蘇軾 said "行於所當行, 止於不可不止".
The link below shows one of Karpov's good games, playing as black the opening Queen's Gambit Declined. After 14... Qe4! White is already doomed, with the black queen threatening both flanks and the centre. What makes the game more outstanding are the sacrifices of two pieces, the knight and then the rook, by Karpov, in the later moves. There are indeed many more games by Karpov that are even better than this.
(for the sake of convenience and speed, this article was written in English.)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hKpE4knki8Y&feature=related
Karpov entered the prestigious chess school established by Botvinnik, the 6th world chess champion, in Russia, when he was 12. Interestingly, Botvinnik commented that "The boy does not have a clue about chess, and there's no future at all for him in this profession." Now, most chess players consider Karpov greater than Botvinnik.
Unlike Garry Kasparov, his nemesis and the 13th champion, Karpov's play does not devote to complicated combinations and conflicts on the board. Instead, Karpov's play is natural and positional, singing harmony. It is just like what the great Chinese literaturer 蘇軾 said "行於所當行, 止於不可不止".
The link below shows one of Karpov's good games, playing as black the opening Queen's Gambit Declined. After 14... Qe4! White is already doomed, with the black queen threatening both flanks and the centre. What makes the game more outstanding are the sacrifices of two pieces, the knight and then the rook, by Karpov, in the later moves. There are indeed many more games by Karpov that are even better than this.
(for the sake of convenience and speed, this article was written in English.)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hKpE4knki8Y&feature=related
2011年7月23日 星期六
火光 (重錄)
[俄]柯羅連科《火光》
很久以前，在一個漆黑的夜晚，我泛舟在西伯利亞的一條陰森森的河上。
船到了一個轉彎處，只見前面黑茫茫的山峰下面，有一支火光驀地一閃。火光又明又亮，好像就在眼前……
我高興地大聲叫道：「好啦，謝天謝地。我們終於可以到過夜的地方！」
船伕扭頭朝身後的火光望了一眼，又不以為然地劃起槳來。 「遠著呢！」
我不相信船伕的話，因為那火光明明就在那裡閃爍。可事實上，船伕是對的，那火光離我們的確還遠著呢。
這些黑夜的火光的特點是：它能衝破黑暗，閃閃發亮，近在眼前，令人神往。乍一看，你只需再劃幾下就到了……其實，它還遠著呢。
我們在漆黑如墨的河上又劃了許久。那一個個懸崖，迎面駛來，又向後移去，消失在茫茫的遠方，而那火光，卻依然停在前面，閃閃發亮，令人神往——依然是這麼近，又依然是那麼遠……
在我們的現實生活中，又有多少這樣的希望之光，它不僅僅地在召喚著我一個人，然而，我們的生命之河，也依然在那陰森森的兩岸之間流著，而那火光，也依然是那麼遙遠。
我們，只有用力划槳！
因為，火光畢竟、畢竟就在前頭……
很久以前，在一個漆黑的夜晚，我泛舟在西伯利亞的一條陰森森的河上。
船到了一個轉彎處，只見前面黑茫茫的山峰下面，有一支火光驀地一閃。火光又明又亮，好像就在眼前……
我高興地大聲叫道：「好啦，謝天謝地。我們終於可以到過夜的地方！」
船伕扭頭朝身後的火光望了一眼，又不以為然地劃起槳來。 「遠著呢！」
我不相信船伕的話，因為那火光明明就在那裡閃爍。可事實上，船伕是對的，那火光離我們的確還遠著呢。
這些黑夜的火光的特點是：它能衝破黑暗，閃閃發亮，近在眼前，令人神往。乍一看，你只需再劃幾下就到了……其實，它還遠著呢。
我們在漆黑如墨的河上又劃了許久。那一個個懸崖，迎面駛來，又向後移去，消失在茫茫的遠方，而那火光，卻依然停在前面，閃閃發亮，令人神往——依然是這麼近，又依然是那麼遠……
在我們的現實生活中，又有多少這樣的希望之光，它不僅僅地在召喚著我一個人，然而，我們的生命之河，也依然在那陰森森的兩岸之間流著，而那火光，也依然是那麼遙遠。
我們，只有用力划槳！
因為，火光畢竟、畢竟就在前頭……
2011年7月20日 星期三
Banana Bank (續)
招行供股集資，上限人民幣350億元，主要應對國內更嚴格的資本要求以及支持業務發展。即使計及供股對每股盈利的攤薄，本年預期巿盈率也可能只12-13倍。巿場仍然十分擔心國內地方債務的壞帳問題。筆者仍傾向認為現價招行具價值，但投資者要付出機會成本，以待地方債的uncertainties逐漸清除，投資者也不要期望該行明年會有優秀業績。
事實上，該行已是國內銀行中資產質素最優質的，地方債的問題相信較5大銀行為細。資產質素比資本充足率更為重要。
事實上，該行已是國內銀行中資產質素最優質的，地方債的問題相信較5大銀行為細。資產質素比資本充足率更為重要。
2011年7月15日 星期五
Some principles
筆者無意中瀏覽了一個基金的網址，發現有19 principles，筆者甚感同意，尤其是# 6、10、11、14、16、19。巿場上的確是噪音太多，胡混太多。以下的principles，值得大家參考。
1. Be a Long Term Investor
Too much emphasis is placed on short-term fluctuations. It is easier to anticipate long-term trends.
2. Have a Flexible Approach
Change is the only certainty and as markets change, one should change as well.
3. Actively Look for Ideas
I find many of my best ideas; they don't find me.
4. Be Skeptical
Check facts directly. Strive to understand the bias and potential conflicts of interest among the sources that provide them.
5. I Eat my Own Cooking
My only stock market investment is the Resolute Performance Fund. This aligns my interests with the rest of the unitholders.
6. I Buy my Best Ideas
I prefer to buy only my best ideas.
7. Filter out the Noise
One of the greatest challenges is to filter out the noise and use only what is relevant.
8. Be Thrifty
Moderate costs facilitate moderate fees. Moderate fees facilitate performance.
9. Outperform by Being Different
To have a chance of outperforming the market, invest differently than the market.
10. Know Your Limits
It is just as important for me to know what I don't know as it is to know what I know.
11. Stay Humble
Stay humble or the market will make you humble.
12. Being Small is an Advantage
It is easier to outperform being small.
13. Apply Spiritual Principles
An important measure of one's success is how much he benefited his fellow man.
14. Investing is Not a Team Sport
The best decisions are rarely made by committee.
15. A Good Card Player Does Not Show His Hand
Confidentiality is essential for successful small cap investing.
16. Too Much Emphasis is Placed on Precision
I don't need exact numbers to make decisions.
17. You Don't Have to Win by being Original
You win by being right.
18. Be a Contrarian
Being a contrarian is harder in practice than in theory.
19. Strive for Effective Rationality
Do the homework; know the facts; and make decisions based on the facts.
Source: http://www.resolutefunds.com/philosophy.html
1. Be a Long Term Investor
Too much emphasis is placed on short-term fluctuations. It is easier to anticipate long-term trends.
2. Have a Flexible Approach
Change is the only certainty and as markets change, one should change as well.
3. Actively Look for Ideas
I find many of my best ideas; they don't find me.
4. Be Skeptical
Check facts directly. Strive to understand the bias and potential conflicts of interest among the sources that provide them.
5. I Eat my Own Cooking
My only stock market investment is the Resolute Performance Fund. This aligns my interests with the rest of the unitholders.
6. I Buy my Best Ideas
I prefer to buy only my best ideas.
7. Filter out the Noise
One of the greatest challenges is to filter out the noise and use only what is relevant.
8. Be Thrifty
Moderate costs facilitate moderate fees. Moderate fees facilitate performance.
9. Outperform by Being Different
To have a chance of outperforming the market, invest differently than the market.
10. Know Your Limits
It is just as important for me to know what I don't know as it is to know what I know.
11. Stay Humble
Stay humble or the market will make you humble.
12. Being Small is an Advantage
It is easier to outperform being small.
13. Apply Spiritual Principles
An important measure of one's success is how much he benefited his fellow man.
14. Investing is Not a Team Sport
The best decisions are rarely made by committee.
15. A Good Card Player Does Not Show His Hand
Confidentiality is essential for successful small cap investing.
16. Too Much Emphasis is Placed on Precision
I don't need exact numbers to make decisions.
17. You Don't Have to Win by being Original
You win by being right.
18. Be a Contrarian
Being a contrarian is harder in practice than in theory.
19. Strive for Effective Rationality
Do the homework; know the facts; and make decisions based on the facts.
Source: http://www.resolutefunds.com/philosophy.html
2011年7月12日 星期二
2011年7月6日 星期三
選擇題
選擇題：以股本回報率* 計，以下那一間是最賺錢的企業？
a. 莎莎(178)
b. 卓悅(653)
c. 港交所(388)
d. 騰訊(700)
問題並不易答，港交所及騰訊皆是具壟斷性的服務供應商，服務供應商固定資產少，股本回報率通常較高。莎莎及卓悅去年則受惠本港零售巿道暢旺，股本回報自然也不差。
答案正式揭曉，有點出人意表。卓悅去年純利1.9億元，10年底股東資金2.1億元，年初1.5億元，平均1.8億元。以此計算，股本回報率高達105%(1.9/1.8)。莎莎、港交所及騰訊股本回報率則分別為40%、60%以及47%。一般而言，20%的股本回報率已屬理想，以此觀之，上述四間公司的股本回報的確十分之高。
卓悅及莎莎回報如此可觀，反映旗下產品深受本港及內地同胞歡迎。兩間公司以銷售「平行進口」產品(俗稱水貨)為主，但近年來亦積極引入獨家代理的產品，甚至開發自己的品牌，毛利率較水貨遠遠為高。以莎莎為例，於上一財年，獨家品牌產品（包括自有品牌及獨家代理產品）銷售增長25%，佔整體銷售比重由40%上升至42%，亦推動毛利率從44%進一步擴闊至45%。不要少看這1%的增幅，沒有這1%，莎莎去年純利增幅只為23%，而不是33%，股價亦會明顯低於目前水平。數年前，莎莎已表示將引入更多獨家產品以改善產品組合及毛利，管理層算是講得出做得到。
說點歷史。莎莎開始時只為銅鑼灣總統商場的一間店舖，於97年上巿，99、01及02財年曾錄得虧損，及後受惠自由行、人民幣升值以及本身管理改善，盈利表現逐漸改善。卓悅亦不遑多讓。
莎莎及卓悅的股本回報率如此高，除了銷售理想，兩者派息比率高亦是原因之一。股息從股東資金中扣除，降低了股東資金，推高了股本回報。卓悅股本回報比莎莎更高，部分原因在於莎莎內地分部目前仍錄得虧損，此外東南亞業務表現亦不及本港。
兩間公司近年的良好業績已獲得回報。目前莎莎及卓悅預期巿盈率分別為22及16倍。以本港零售商而言，巿場的確十分俾面。
* 股本回報率(return on equity)：純利除以股東資金，反映股東資金的投資回報率
a. 莎莎(178)
b. 卓悅(653)
c. 港交所(388)
d. 騰訊(700)
問題並不易答，港交所及騰訊皆是具壟斷性的服務供應商，服務供應商固定資產少，股本回報率通常較高。莎莎及卓悅去年則受惠本港零售巿道暢旺，股本回報自然也不差。
答案正式揭曉，有點出人意表。卓悅去年純利1.9億元，10年底股東資金2.1億元，年初1.5億元，平均1.8億元。以此計算，股本回報率高達105%(1.9/1.8)。莎莎、港交所及騰訊股本回報率則分別為40%、60%以及47%。一般而言，20%的股本回報率已屬理想，以此觀之，上述四間公司的股本回報的確十分之高。
卓悅及莎莎回報如此可觀，反映旗下產品深受本港及內地同胞歡迎。兩間公司以銷售「平行進口」產品(俗稱水貨)為主，但近年來亦積極引入獨家代理的產品，甚至開發自己的品牌，毛利率較水貨遠遠為高。以莎莎為例，於上一財年，獨家品牌產品（包括自有品牌及獨家代理產品）銷售增長25%，佔整體銷售比重由40%上升至42%，亦推動毛利率從44%進一步擴闊至45%。不要少看這1%的增幅，沒有這1%，莎莎去年純利增幅只為23%，而不是33%，股價亦會明顯低於目前水平。數年前，莎莎已表示將引入更多獨家產品以改善產品組合及毛利，管理層算是講得出做得到。
說點歷史。莎莎開始時只為銅鑼灣總統商場的一間店舖，於97年上巿，99、01及02財年曾錄得虧損，及後受惠自由行、人民幣升值以及本身管理改善，盈利表現逐漸改善。卓悅亦不遑多讓。
莎莎及卓悅的股本回報率如此高，除了銷售理想，兩者派息比率高亦是原因之一。股息從股東資金中扣除，降低了股東資金，推高了股本回報。卓悅股本回報比莎莎更高，部分原因在於莎莎內地分部目前仍錄得虧損，此外東南亞業務表現亦不及本港。
兩間公司近年的良好業績已獲得回報。目前莎莎及卓悅預期巿盈率分別為22及16倍。以本港零售商而言，巿場的確十分俾面。
* 股本回報率(return on equity)：純利除以股東資金，反映股東資金的投資回報率
訂閱：
文章 (Atom)