偉大的人

當今金融巿場兵荒馬亂，人人自危，但有一個人仍然從容不迫，堅持信念，堅持相信投資就是以低於合理價格買入有競爭力及優良管理的企業，並長綫持有；股票不是一張紙、一個號碼，而是一間企業的權益。

當然，他就是畢菲特。

畢老一個星期前於New York Times寫到：

THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.

So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.

Why?

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.

A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.

Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.
Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”

I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities.


別人貪婪時恐慌，別人恐慌時貪婪，這就是投資的終極道理。

股價最終將趨於合理的價值，雖然價值和價格很多時並不一樣。

當然當看到那些數十年來從未如此低殘的估值時人們難免驚惶。但可以說，這些股價並不是真實的―― 只要你現在不用套現的話。

畢老說得好：“股票巿場對我而言是不存在的。”

這不期然令我想起王守仁的心學：

“爾未看此花時，此花與爾心同歸於寂。爾來看此花時，則此花顏色，一時明白起來。便知此花，不在爾的心外。”

理在心中，不在物外！花只在你我的心中存在。

這不是鴕鳥政策，不是逃避現實，這是認識事物的哲學。

王守仁，心學的發揚者，是人類史上發光發熱的人物。“明史”三百年的人物中獲得獨立作傳的榮耀的惟王守仁、于謙及孫承宗而已，連袁崇煥及張居正也沒有份兒。而王守仁無疑是其中最偉大的，因為他的哲學歷久不衰，閃爍古今，還有無盡的未來。

畢老當然不能與王守仁相比。但作為一個投資者，畢菲特是偉大的，因為他明白“福兮禍所倚，禍兮福所伏”這顯淺但時常被人遺忘的道理。

火光

金庸先生的武俠小說，載譽國際，但我認為他寫得最好的一段文字，不是出自他的小說，而是小說《碧血劍》中附錄的一篇《袁崇煥評傳》。喬峯，是金庸筆下最成功的悲劇英雄人物；而袁崇煥，是中國史上真真正正的悲劇英雄。《評傳》最後的文字曰：

“流離在道路上的饑民不知道怪誰才好，只有怪天。他們向來對老天爺又敬又怕，這時反正要死了，就算在地獄中上刀山、下油鍋也不管了，他們破口大罵老天爺，有氣無力的咒罵，終於倒在地下，再也起不來……

在北京城的深宮裏，十八歲的少年皇帝在拍著桌子發脾氣。他又是焦急，又是害怕，不斷的問太監：“袁蠻子寫了信沒有？怎麼還不寫好？這傢伙跟我過不去，非將他千刀萬剮不可。你們再去催，叫他快寫信給祖大壽！”他憔悴蒼白的臉上泛起了潮紅，眼中布滿了紅絲，不斷的說：“殺了他！殺了他！”……

在陰森寒冷的御牢裏，袁崇煥提筆在寫信給祖大壽，硯臺裏會結冰吧？他的手會凍得僵硬嗎？會因憤怒而顫抖嗎？他的信裏寫的是些甚麼句子？淚水一定滴上了信箋罷？

皇帝的信使快馬馳出山海關外，將這封信交在祖大壽的手裏。祖大壽讀信之後，伏地大哭。訊息傳了開去：“督師有信來！”

遼河大平原上白茫茫的一片冰雪。數萬名間關百戰、滿身累累槍傷箭疤的關東大漢，伏在地下向著北京號啕痛哭，因為他們的督師快要被皇帝殺死了。戰馬悲嘶，朔風呼嘯，綿延數里的雪地裏盡是伏著憤怒傷心的豪士，白雪不斷的落在他們的鐵盔上、鐵甲上……”

熟悉明史的讀者，是知道上文的來龍去脈的。稍作補充，是歲為明崇禎二年，滿清皇太極經長城自西向明朝偷襲，以雷霆萬均之勢攻向京城。身在寧遠(今遼寧省興城)的兵部尚書、薊遼督師袁崇煥急忙率五千關寧鐵騎入援，並在北京城外擊退清兵攻勢，清兵稍為退卻。然而多疑的崇禎中了反間計，以為袁崇煥引清兵入內，遂將袁崇煥誘至宮中，投入天牢。

袁崇煥部將祖大壽大驚，引遼東士兵出走。崇禎知道後，忙令人催袁崇煥寫信予祖大壽，期望穩定軍心。

皇太極知道崇禎中了反間計，大喜，復引清兵來攻。由於遼東軍出走，加上袁崇煥下獄，明軍大敗。幸而明室復起用了孫承宗(袁崇煥的恩師)，加上祖大壽引兵復歸，才穏住了局勢，最後清兵撤退。這便是上文的背景。

金庸的那段文字藝術色彩是濃厚的，幾幕情景剪接連繫得那麼出眾，一幕幕湧入讀者的眼中。先是鐵蹄過後難民的慘況，然後是深宮裏少年皇帝的焦燥兇惡，展轉去到獄中的袁崇煥、關外的祖大壽。最後是戰馬悲嘶，朔風呼嘯，悲傷的戰士、紛揚的白雪……

袁崇煥雖然不是作戰如神的韓信岳飛，但其英雄色彩是絕對不亞於他們的，甚至過之，因他下場更悲慘，影響更深遠，是“以一身之言動、進退、生死，關係國家之安危、民族之隆替者”。

煥，就是火光。火光終歸熄滅，但浩然之氣長存。

徐行

轉眼匆匆，營營役役，勞勞碌碌。還是施施而行，漫漫而遊吧。蘇子詞曰：

“莫聽穿林打葉聲，何妨吟嘯且徐行。竹杖芒鞋輕勝馬，誰怕？一簑煙雨任平生。 料峭春風吹酒醒，微冷，山頭斜照卻相迎。回首向來蕭瑟處，歸去，也無風雨也無晴。”

徐行，或許就是應有的生存姿態。

是為序。