偉大的人

當今金融巿場兵荒馬亂，人人自危，但有一個人仍然從容不迫，堅持信念，堅持相信投資就是以低於合理價格買入有競爭力及優良管理的企業，並長綫持有；股票不是一張紙、一個號碼，而是一間企業的權益。

當然，他就是畢菲特。

畢老一個星期前於New York Times寫到：

THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.

So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.

Why?

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.

A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.

Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.
Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”

I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities.


別人貪婪時恐慌，別人恐慌時貪婪，這就是投資的終極道理。

股價最終將趨於合理的價值，雖然價值和價格很多時並不一樣。

當然當看到那些數十年來從未如此低殘的估值時人們難免驚惶。但可以說，這些股價並不是真實的―― 只要你現在不用套現的話。

畢老說得好：“股票巿場對我而言是不存在的。”

這不期然令我想起王守仁的心學：

“爾未看此花時，此花與爾心同歸於寂。爾來看此花時，則此花顏色，一時明白起來。便知此花，不在爾的心外。”

理在心中，不在物外！花只在你我的心中存在。

這不是鴕鳥政策，不是逃避現實，這是認識事物的哲學。

王守仁，心學的發揚者，是人類史上發光發熱的人物。“明史”三百年的人物中獲得獨立作傳的榮耀的惟王守仁、于謙及孫承宗而已，連袁崇煥及張居正也沒有份兒。而王守仁無疑是其中最偉大的，因為他的哲學歷久不衰，閃爍古今，還有無盡的未來。

畢老當然不能與王守仁相比。但作為一個投資者，畢菲特是偉大的，因為他明白“福兮禍所倚，禍兮福所伏”這顯淺但時常被人遺忘的道理。